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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the current race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still